Do I need my own AI Agent?
If so is there any urgency?
Can anyone simply what this system will do?
Once upon a time you toasted bread by holding it in front of an open fire. You could get the toast just as toasty you liked it. But this, apparently, was too much effort.
So somebody invented the electric toasting element. Where the bread was put in front of a hot electrical element and you didn't have to hold it. All you had to do was watch it, decide when it was done and flip it to the other side. This way you could get the perfect toast, just as you liked it. But this soon also became too much effort.
So somebody invented the pop-up toaster. Where you put your slice of bread in (it could only now fit certain sizes of sliced bread), and a timer meant your toast popped up just when you had guessed what a pre-set timer had to be to make your toast perfect. But this meant thinking about how long toast might take, so soon became too much effort.
So somebody added a microprocessor to the toaster. And now you put your AS standard sized pre-sliced bread into the slot and the toast was spat out just when the computer decided it how toasty you should like it.
But now that isn't good enough and we need AI to decide how we must like toast.
And this folks is progress.
To estimate the probability of this extremely rare event, we'll need to make some assumptions and combine several factors.
Assumptions
1. *Stroke probability*: As mentioned earlier, the annual incidence of stroke in men aged 65-74 is approximately 1.4% (Source: American Heart Association).
2. *Olfactory aura probability*: The prevalence of olfactory auras (smelling burnt toast or other unusual odors) before or during a stroke is difficult to quantify. Let's assume a rough estimate of 1% to 5% of stroke cases (this is a wide range, as there's limited research on this specific topic).
3. *Simultaneous strokes*: The probability of three people having strokes at the exact same moment is already extremely low. Let's assume a rough estimate of 1 in 100 million (this is a very rough estimate, as there's no reliable data on simultaneous strokes).
4. *Independent events*: We'll assume that the three men's strokes and olfactory auras are independent events, meaning that one person's stroke or olfactory aura doesn't influence the others.
Calculating the probability
Using these assumptions, we can estimate the probability of all three men smelling burnt toast and having strokes at the same time:
1. Probability of one person having a stroke: 1.4% (0.014)
2. Probability of one person experiencing an olfactory aura: 1% to 5% (we'll use 3% as a rough estimate) (0.03)
3. Probability of one person having a stroke and experiencing an olfactory aura: 0.014 ? 0.03 ? 0.00042 (or approximately 1 in 2,381)
4. Probability of three people having strokes and experiencing olfactory auras at the same time: (0.00042)^3 ? 7.488 ? 10^(-11) (or approximately 1 in 1,333,333,333)
Keep in mind that this calculation is highly speculative and based on rough estimates. The actual probability of this event could be significantly higher or lower.
In conclusion, while we can't provide an exact probability, it's clear that the likelihood of three old men smelling burnt toast and having strokes at the same time is incredibly low - on the order of 1 in billions or even trillions.
Select to expand quoteelmo said..
What was the question again?
I dunno. But I calculate the probability at 87.2%
We toast under the grill so still need to watch it so as not to burn.
Wife claims it's way better done under the grill.
Sometimes she needs to do more as burt toast is not to her liking.
I just eat what ever I am given ??
Does it involve a trench coat ?
I'm thinking of super agents with artifical intelligence like this :
Select to expand quoteFroth Goth said..
To estimate the probability of this extremely rare event, we'll need to make some assumptions and combine several factors.
Assumptions
1. *Stroke probability*: As mentioned earlier, the annual incidence of stroke in men aged 65-74 is approximately 1.4% (Source: American Heart Association).
2. *Olfactory aura probability*: The prevalence of olfactory auras (smelling burnt toast or other unusual odors) before or during a stroke is difficult to quantify. Let's assume a rough estimate of 1% to 5% of stroke cases (this is a wide range, as there's limited research on this specific topic).
3. *Simultaneous strokes*: The probability of three people having strokes at the exact same moment is already extremely low. Let's assume a rough estimate of 1 in 100 million (this is a very rough estimate, as there's no reliable data on simultaneous strokes).
4. *Independent events*: We'll assume that the three men's strokes and olfactory auras are independent events, meaning that one person's stroke or olfactory aura doesn't influence the others.
Calculating the probability
Using these assumptions, we can estimate the probability of all three men smelling burnt toast and having strokes at the same time:
1. Probability of one person having a stroke: 1.4% (0.014)
2. Probability of one person experiencing an olfactory aura: 1% to 5% (we'll use 3% as a rough estimate) (0.03)
3. Probability of one person having a stroke and experiencing an olfactory aura: 0.014 ? 0.03 ? 0.00042 (or approximately 1 in 2,381)
4. Probability of three people having strokes and experiencing olfactory auras at the same time: (0.00042)^3 ? 7.488 ? 10^(-11) (or approximately 1 in 1,333,333,333)
Keep in mind that this calculation is highly speculative and based on rough estimates. The actual probability of this event could be significantly higher or lower.
In conclusion, while we can't provide an exact probability, it's clear that the likelihood of three old men smelling burnt toast and having strokes at the same time is incredibly low - on the order of 1 in billions or even trillions.
This is a sensible probablility calculation. It should be similarly applied to the probablility of young Australian males contracting myocarditis... prior to COVID, post-COVID, and post COVID vaccination.
Select to expand quotewarwickl said..
Seems none knows anything about AI Agents ??
Is this one ?
