Forums > General Discussion   Shooting the breeze...

Don't panic, stock food now!!

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Created by Macroscien > 9 months ago, 25 Feb 2020
evlPanda
NSW, 9204 posts
6 Mar 2020 5:22PM
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Boardgames can be good if you get stuck inside with the family for a few weeks.

Pandemic: Legacy is *awesome*. My daughter is *too scared* to play it anymore. It's eerily parallel to what is unfolding right now. My "ground zero" was actually Beijing!

arstechnica.com/gaming/2016/03/pandemic-legacy-is-the-best-board-game-ever-but-is-it-fun/

I'd better order seasons 2 and 3 before society collapses.

Harrow
NSW, 4521 posts
11 Mar 2020 7:58PM
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Harrow said..

saltiest1 said..
Well I just changed my superannuation from high risk to conservative.

I've followed suit. At least I managed to catch the dead cat bounce. I figure there's a heck of a lot more to lose than gain over the next 12 months.

Thanks salty, I owe you a beer next time you're in town.

Now, you just need to tell me when you switch back to high risk.

Gazuki
WA, 1363 posts
11 Mar 2020 5:50PM
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AUSTRALIA NEEDS TO ACT NOW!!!! STOP EVENTS, NON URGENT TRAVEL,. CONTROL STATE BOARDERS,.. 5 DAYS BEFORE WE ARE PHUCT!!!!





FormulaNova
WA, 14854 posts
11 Mar 2020 7:57PM
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Harrow said..
Harrow said..

saltiest1 said..
Well I just changed my superannuation from high risk to conservative.

I've followed suit. At least I managed to catch the dead cat bounce. I figure there's a heck of a lot more to lose than gain over the next 12 months.

Thanks salty, I owe you a beer next time you're in town.

Now, you just need to tell me when you switch back to high risk.


I changed half of mine to cash last week, and immediately regretted it thinking that I was too late. Yesterday I was happy that I did, although I am not sure I understand it enough to really known whether I did a good thing.

One thing it did open my eyes to coincidentally was 'the barefoot investor's' book and his advice that lots of top superfunds extract so many fees from you that the cheaper ones with slightly lower returns are actually better performing once you take the fees into account. I have switched and I didn't realise that there were significant differences.

holy guacamole
1393 posts
11 Mar 2020 8:28PM
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Wow, Italy's looking stuffed....

FormulaNova
WA, 14854 posts
11 Mar 2020 8:42PM
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holy guacamole said..
Wow, Italy's looking stuffed....


What worries me is that you, or at least other people, assume that he health services in Italy must be 3rd world level, but then you read people saying it is first class and at least equal to here, and that they failed in their approach.

Which is probably exactly what we are doing here! There seems to be no great approach here, and worrying when you read of people wanting to get tested and not being able to to or being rejected as no one knows what to do.

This is for something that is contagious before the symptoms appear, which is the worst thing about this virus in that it will catch people out before they know it. If we are lucky it will mutate to a version that is far less dangerous.

saltiest1
NSW, 2510 posts
12 Mar 2020 6:26AM
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Harrow said..

Harrow said..


saltiest1 said..
Well I just changed my superannuation from high risk to conservative.


I've followed suit. At least I managed to catch the dead cat bounce. I figure there's a heck of a lot more to lose than gain over the next 12 months.


Thanks salty, I owe you a beer next time you're in town.

Now, you just need to tell me when you switch back to high risk.


For future reference, when toilet paper mentality kicks in with general public, the stockbrokers are not far behind.

Gazuki
WA, 1363 posts
12 Mar 2020 6:46AM
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FormulaNova said.

holy guacamole said.
Wow, Italy's looking stuffed...



What worries me is that you, or at least other people, assume that the health services in Italy must be 3rd world level, but then you read people saying it is first class and at least equal to here and that they failed in their approach.

Which is probably exactly what we are doing here! There seems to be no great approach here, and worrying when you read of people wanting to get tested and not being able to or being rejected as no one knows what to do.

This is for something contagious before the symptoms appear, which is the worst thing about this virus in that it will catch people out before they know it. If we are lucky it will mutate to a version that is far less dangerous.


So-mo doing what he does best,.. not leading. That clown need to take decisive action two weeks ago.

If SCO-mo thinks his in-action around the bushfires upset people, wait to this thing kicks third gear.

Maybe he should take a holiday to Italy instead of Hawaii this time

Harrow
NSW, 4521 posts
12 Mar 2020 11:35AM
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saltiest1 said..
For future reference, when toilet paper mentality kicks in with general public, the stockbrokers are not far behind.

Why have I never read that before. Damn, got to be the best leading factor there is!!

Harrow
NSW, 4521 posts
12 Mar 2020 11:39AM
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Interesting to see that several countries appear to have slowed in their infection rate, but not until it becomes a local epidemic. Like I said before, I think the danger of Coronavirus is that it isn't as dangerous as SARS. It's just below the radar enough that people aren't doing the things they should until the number of local deaths starts to launch into the hundreds, then they finally start to act. Afraid Australia will be no different. Once everyone knows someone who has died, then they'll realise, but a little too late.

My kids won't listen, but in a few weeks, there'll be someone at uni, or a friends parent that has died, and suddenly they'll start to be careful. There's a stack of social contact that can be modified or eliminated without ruining society. Just few people have the will yet.

Bara
WA, 647 posts
12 Mar 2020 8:53AM
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China is going back to work even in Wuhan. Going to be interesting to compare the performance of a dictatorship of 1.4 billion vs say the liberal democracy of the EU of 500 million in terms of infection prevention

If it wasnt for the northen hemi moving into spring I reckon the EU totals would top china pretty comfortably given the ability for the populace to pretty much ignore the public good.

Re Investing I havnt seen panic in markets like this since the GFC. Investors both retail and wholesale will pay any price to liquidate into cash right now.

There will be a time to flip out of cash but I suspect when it turns it will be so quick most will miss it.

All the stimulus globally will eventually have us shoot the other way but there is a risk credit defaults originating out of either italy or the oil producers could cause a second wave of panic akin to the GFC for now

Thats what has the markets spooked not the virus.

Keep an eye on the VIX when thats starts coming back down time to move

Just my humble opinion of course but staying in cash too long especially AUDs will ultimately destroy value.

Kamikuza
QLD, 6493 posts
12 Mar 2020 11:25AM
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I hear tell that those who stocked up on bog roll are now trying to return it and get a refund, but stores are not having it comedy gold!

Macroscien
QLD, 6806 posts
12 Mar 2020 12:10PM
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Bara said..
here will be a time to flip out of cash but I suspect when it turns it will be so quick most will miss it.

All the stimulus globally will eventually have us shoot the other way but there is a risk credit defaults originating out of either italy or the oil producers could cause a second wave of panic akin to the GFC for now

Thats what has the markets spooked not the virus.

Keep an eye on the VIX when thats starts coming back down time to move

Just my humble opinion of course but staying in cash too long especially AUDs will ultimately destroy value.


Interesting.Is it better to stock money now ? ( because cash is a king ?: )or better to spend money now and invest in something permanent ( like a real estate or land) .Money could loose their value very quickly but also can help to survive real crisis when you need to pay $1000 for a meal.Definitely our AUS is taking deep dive now against USD.

japie
NSW, 7045 posts
12 Mar 2020 2:22PM
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Its bloody funny how people have criticised preppers in the past and we are now seeing it manifesting quite widely. I am not one incidentally!

We were running short on bog roll and I managed to nick six rolls from work. There are a couple of cases there. If anyone is prepared to PM me I'll let them know where it is.

For a price!

With regard to food prepping this book is an absolute treasure for yachties. Dried lentils and beans are available in huge variety and obviously do not require refridgeration. If you have a pressure cooker they can also be cooked very quickly. And they take up very little space.

www.bookdepository.com/The-Bean-Book-Rose-Elliot/9780722539477

Harrow
NSW, 4521 posts
12 Mar 2020 5:41PM
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Kamikuza said..
I hear tell that those who stocked up on bog roll are now trying to return it and get a refund, but stores are not having it comedy gold!

Really? Still impossible to get it where I live. Apparently they get stocked everyday but it's gone in 5 minutes.

Harrow
NSW, 4521 posts
12 Mar 2020 5:44PM
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Macroscien said..Definitely our AUS is taking deep dive now against USD.

I figure it will stop around 0.30 USD. If you don't actually do anything, then what is your dollar worth? We're now a 3rd world world country depending on cashed up overseas tourists to throw us scraps.

FormulaNova
WA, 14854 posts
12 Mar 2020 3:01PM
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Harrow said..

Kamikuza said..
I hear tell that those who stocked up on bog roll are now trying to return it and get a refund, but stores are not having it comedy gold!


Really? Still impossible to get it where I live. Apparently they get stocked everyday but it's gone in 5 minutes.


I wonder if BCF are also out of stock for the paper they sell for camping toilets?

TonyAbbott
894 posts
12 Mar 2020 3:29PM
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Socialism has been teaching us about panic buying and food shortages for decades.

Just study what things were panic bought in Venezuela to help predict how things might unfold here.

Harrow
NSW, 4521 posts
12 Mar 2020 6:46PM
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FormulaNova said..
One thing it did open my eyes to coincidentally was 'the barefoot investor's' book and his advice that lots of top superfunds extract so many fees from you that the cheaper ones with slightly lower returns are actually better performing once you take the fees into account. I have switched and I didn't realise that there were significant differences.

I'll go one step further. The returns on the industry super funds are just as good BEFORE you take the fees into account. I can't understand why anyone is not in an industry super fund.

mineral1
WA, 4564 posts
12 Mar 2020 6:13PM
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Was food shopping and behind this chap at check out. He had two cartons of Spam (tin dog as one might have been told as a kid)
So that's two bloody cartons of the stuff.
He looked at me and grinned, (and if I could post a Benny Hill Chinese accent I would) and said. One can never be too certain, this will feed family longtime if they come around welding our doors shut like back in China
The check out chick, him and the rest of us in the queue burst out laughing

Macroscien
QLD, 6806 posts
12 Mar 2020 8:37PM
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Harrow said..

Macroscien said..Definitely our AUS is taking deep dive now against USD.


I figure it will stop around 0.30 USD. If you don't actually do anything, then what is your dollar worth? We're now a 3rd world world country depending on cashed up overseas tourists to throw us scraps.


Whole Gold Coast is like a big inland Cruise Ship. City that completely depend on tourists and visitors. Now , after famous T. HANKS cathed virus probably here , word will spread around the world quickly, to avoid Aussie destinations.

saltiest1
NSW, 2510 posts
13 Mar 2020 11:54AM
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Harrow said..

saltiest1 said..
For future reference, when toilet paper mentality kicks in with general public, the stockbrokers are not far behind.


Why have I never read that before. Damn, got to be the best leading factor there is!!


Still dropped 7k in a few days. Gotta be quick!

Macroscien
QLD, 6806 posts
13 Mar 2020 11:14AM
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There is one unexpected outcome from this corona virus pandemic.Big gatherings create greatest risk and religious practices require regular attendance.This means that population of that most religious will be greatly effected.This may explain why is so many victims in Iran and Italy.

Luckily Australian people are least religious nation on the planet and could even switch to TV while comes to rugby and cricket.

FormulaNova
WA, 14854 posts
13 Mar 2020 10:09AM
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Harrow said..
FormulaNova said..
One thing it did open my eyes to coincidentally was 'the barefoot investor's' book and his advice that lots of top superfunds extract so many fees from you that the cheaper ones with slightly lower returns are actually better performing once you take the fees into account. I have switched and I didn't realise that there were significant differences.

I'll go one step further. The returns on the industry super funds are just as good BEFORE you take the fees into account. I can't understand why anyone is not in an industry super fund.


The reason for this is that the big super players like AMP seem to market themselves to companies. I am not sure how, but they seem to be the default for a lot of companies, and I suspect its from low or no costs to the employers and possibly something else.

A lot of people are probably the same as me and assume the big names are the best returns, but it seems more like the big names have the big fees and lots of 'financial consultants' you have never met taking a fee from your account.

Harrow
NSW, 4521 posts
13 Mar 2020 2:07PM
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FormulaNova said..
I changed half of mine to cash last week, and immediately regretted it thinking that I was too late. Yesterday I was happy that I did, although I am not sure I understand it enough to really known whether I did a good thing.

One thing it did open my eyes to coincidentally was 'the barefoot investor's' book and his advice that lots of top superfunds extract so many fees from you that the cheaper ones with slightly lower returns are actually better performing once you take the fees into account. I have switched and I didn't realise that there were significant differences.

You gotta be smiling today.

FormulaNova
WA, 14854 posts
13 Mar 2020 11:26AM
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Harrow said..
FormulaNova said..
I changed half of mine to cash last week, and immediately regretted it thinking that I was too late. Yesterday I was happy that I did, although I am not sure I understand it enough to really known whether I did a good thing.

One thing it did open my eyes to coincidentally was 'the barefoot investor's' book and his advice that lots of top superfunds extract so many fees from you that the cheaper ones with slightly lower returns are actually better performing once you take the fees into account. I have switched and I didn't realise that there were significant differences.

You gotta be smiling today.


No, I just looked at the overall accounts and wondered why I didn't move it all over to cash or conservative!

It did take its toll though, and I am at least $3k down on one account, and probably $10k on another... of which both would have been worse if I had left them where they were.

Harrow
NSW, 4521 posts
13 Mar 2020 3:33PM
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FormulaNova said..
No, I just looked at the overall accounts and wondered why I didn't move it all over to cash or conservative!

It did take its toll though, and I am at least $3k down on one account, and probably $10k on another... of which both would have been worse if I had left them where they were.

Ah, and what if it rebounded. I moved from high risk to conservative, not cash. So, effectively the same as you putting half into cash. I managed to halve my losses. It's glass-half-full, not half-empty.

But, it's all useless if you don't move it back before the rise. Is that next week, next month, or next year?? Trouble is there are always false starts so you can't pick it. If you move it back at a lower point then you moved it out, then you're a winner. Don't go worrying you didn't pick the peak or the trough. Anyway, if you're talking about a 4 figure loss, not a 5 or 6 figure one, then you're probably a lot younger than me and this represents an opportunity...make sure you use the full $25K super cap this financial year if you can, and do it now.....make your top-up voluntary contribution today!

Bara
WA, 647 posts
13 Mar 2020 1:27PM
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Harrow said..

FormulaNova said..
No, I just looked at the overall accounts and wondered why I didn't move it all over to cash or conservative!

It did take its toll though, and I am at least $3k down on one account, and probably $10k on another... of which both would have been worse if I had left them where they were.


Ah, and what if it rebounded. I moved from high risk to conservative, not cash. So, effectively the same as you putting half into cash. I managed to halve my losses. It's glass-half-full, not half-empty.

But, it's all useless if you don't move it back before the rise. Is that next week, next month, or next year?? Trouble is there's always false starts so you can't pick it. If you move it back at a lower point then you moved it out, then you're winner. Don't go worrying you didn't pick the peak or the trough. Anyway, if your talking 4 figure losses, not 5 or 6 figure ones, then you're probably a lot younger than me and this represents an opportunity...make sure you use the full $25K super cap this financial year if you can, and do it now.....make your top-up voluntary contribution today!!


lol it might have been this afternoon harrow. Most stunning turn around ive ever seen in a market intraday.

right now we are the only market in the green.

the defensive stuff like bonds gold property all got smacked with a bat till it stopped moving. Still not sure what to make of that - either more liquidity crunch or switch out of risk off mode.

time will tell

one good thing about the industry super finds is they dont mark alot of their stuff to market so your daily exit price is somewhat cushioned in a bear market (of course you pay more when you get back in though too)

FormulaNova
WA, 14854 posts
13 Mar 2020 2:06PM
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Harrow said..
Anyway, if you're talking about a 4 figure loss, not a 5 or 6 figure one, then you're probably a lot younger than me and this represents an opportunity...make sure you use the full $25K super cap this financial year if you can, and do it now.....make your top-up voluntary contribution today!


I am probably a little bit younger than you, but not much. I think I have been screwed over a few times over the years with funds that have insurance attached to them that eat up everything until there is none left. I am sure I had a fund with Tower that got away with this. You don't even know its happening until you see the total one day and then find that they have been charging a ridiculous amount for insurance that you don't need that overlaps with another fund doing the same. The thing that stings the most is that they send you a letter where you need to opt out of the insurance, and if you don't they just keep taking it.

Superannuation companies must have been reamed out over this practice at the recent banking commission as when AMP tried to do the same thing recently when I finished working for the previous company, they quickly removed it when I asked them via email. In the past, you would have been lucky to get them to remove it even if you had a written request witnessed by both the Queen and the Pope.

I am sure this insurance thing has happened a few times now, and in the past I was very lazy about leaving little funds open all over the place.

I read somewhere recently that they do this opt-out insurance thing to prevent people accidentally losing important insurance without realising it. BullSh1t! Its so that insurance companies can get nice default customers that probably don't even realise they have cover, let alone expect to make a claim on it.

I think this is a big scam in the industry where you are paying over the odds for investment leeches that do nothing, and the fees eat up a lot of your return. If it were more transparent where they took their admin fees out of their investment returns, I am sure it would be more easy to judge different funds against each other.

Gboots
NSW, 1314 posts
13 Mar 2020 7:12PM
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Drip feed purchases on a weekly basis . There's no hope picking this market



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Forums > General Discussion   Shooting the breeze...


"Don't panic, stock food now!!" started by Macroscien